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Abstract - Sustainability of Public Debt in Botswana: A Regime Switching Approach
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Abstract: The analysis of the Botswana government debt from 1960 to 2017 is made using the regime switching model. Results show that (i) the probability for the public debt to be in a situation of unsustainability conditionally is 95% (ii) the probability that public debt is in sustainable position while there is no crisis is 71%. The durations of the regimes are 23.467 in regime 1 or unsustainability regime and 2.547 in regime 2 or sustainability regime respectively. Since the probability for the public debt to be in crisis and to remain in crisis is extremely high, extreme precaution should be taken on capital markets as well as in the way the Central Bank deals with debt issues. Likewise, balanced budgets should always be the rule rather than the exception. Keywords: Sustainability, Public Debt, Markov Switching Model. |
Abstract - Public Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka
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Abstract: Public debt, one of the main reasons for financial crises in some emerging markets, has become the most crucial topic among policymakers. The ongoing debates among policymakers and the candidates of the forthcoming presidential election in Sri Lanka motivate the current research. The primary objective of this study is to analyze the public debt sustainability in Sri Lanka using a fiscal reaction function. The study applies the unit root test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test analysis, ARDL long-run model, and vector error correction model. The study used annual time-series data taken from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the World Development Indicators for the period from 1980 to 2017. The estimated results of the fiscal reaction function confirm that public debt was not sustainable under the study period in Sri Lanka. The finding proves that fiscal policy measures are not appropriate to maintain public debt sustainability and fiscal solvency. The study recommends shifting away from foreign sources to other sources to finance the budget deficit or reduce the budget deficit in Sri Lanka. Keywords: Public debt, Sri Lanka, Public debt sustainability, ARDL model, Cointegration. |
Editorial: Innovation of Modern Industrialised Society for Africans by Africans
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Abstract - Constraints that Hinder the Sustainability of Small Businesses in Durban, South Africa
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Abstract: South Africa is viewed as one of the developing countries when compared to other African countries. However, the challenges that are experienced by the Small Business Enterprises (SMEs) continue to limit the economic growth of the country. Thus, these challenges are linked to the high rate of business failures. The main aim of the study is to evaluate constrains that hinder the sustainability of small businesses in Durban, South Africa. Employing the sociological entrepreneurship theory to understand the context of entrepreneurship and the challenges that pose a threat to the entrepreneurial activities, a qualitative approach was employed to achieve the objectives of study. A convenience sampling technique was employed to conduct in-depth interview among ten (10) entrepreneurs who participated in this study. NVivo 12 software was employed to analyse the data using a thematic and content analyses. The study findings revealed poor management, poor planning and lack of appropriate technology as some of the challenges confronting small businesses. Recommendations and conclusion are provided in this article. Keywords: Challenges, Employees, Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Sustainability. |
