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Abstract - Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Transmission in Turkey in the Inflation Targeting Regime
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Abstract: This study aims to analyse the determinants of inflation and the effectiveness of the monetary transmission in Turkey. The study is covering the period 2003:Q2-2015:Q3 which consists of just an inflation targeting time before 2008, and inflation and financial stability targeting time after 2008 global financial crises. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test is used for the long-run relationship and a VAR analysis for the short-run dynamics. The cointegration results reveal that the credit growth, US/TL exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, interest rate, and imported inflation are the determinants of inflation in Turkey in the long run. Also, our empirical findings indicate that exchange rate is the most effective factor in inflation. According to the VAR model’s impulse responses, the key drivers of inflation are the movements in the US/TL nominal effective exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, interest rate, GDP growth in the short-term, and credit growth is in the medium-term. ARDL cointegration and impulse responses also show that interest rate and credit growth are efficient instruments as a monetary policy for the inflation targeting and financial stability. Keywords: Inflation, Monetary Transmission, Cointegration, VAR Model. |
Abstract: The Russian Financial Crisis and Workers’ Remittances to Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic
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Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the link between remittances and key macroeconomic variables of the host country (Russia) and the world’s most remittance-dependent economies of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. We mostly focus on the relationship during the ongoing Russian financial crisis. In particular, we estimate the responses of remittances to a shock in the exchange rate and per capita income in Russia and those of the key macroeconomic fundamentals of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to a shock in remittance inflows. The empirical findings show that remittances serve as a channel to transfer the negative effects of the global and the Russian financial crises from the Russian macroeconomic fundamentals to the macroeconomic indicators of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. Keywords: Russian financial crisis, remittance, Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic.Download Full Article |
Abstract: Access to Debt Finance: Which Policies Work? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
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Abstract: Are the structural policy reforms effective in reducing debt financing constraints on formal sector enterprises in sub-Saharan Africa? We do not know. And the reason is the relatively limited research on the effectiveness of policies in the credit market. Using policy variables from the World Bank and the Enterprise Surveys data, the analysis involves three-way error component models. The results are indicative that taken together; structural policy reforms reduce debt financing constraints, at least, as it pertains to working capital needs. There is heterogeneity in the results. Changes in the business regulatory environment benefit large firms more than small ones. Financial sector reforms affect enterprises of all sizes relatively equally. For all the twelve countries, together, trade sector reforms initially increase the likelihood of access to debt finance by 20 percent until a policy threshold, beyond which progressive reforms in the trade sector reduce the probability by as much as 13 percent. Also, not all countries experience the same effects from trade sector reforms. The result is robust to different indicators of credit constraint and measures of structural reforms. The results have implications on the World Bank’s push towards reforms on trade policy across countries. Keywords: Debt-financing, trade reforms, structural reforms.Download Full Article |
Abstract: Revisiting Islamization of Courses in Economics with Special Emphasis on the Operational Aspect
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Abstract: Knowledge immune from the moral and ethical principles based on a belief system as that of Islam has failed to address the hydra-leaded problems facing the world. Knowing about truth is possible not just by using acquired knowledge based on human reasoning or intellect. In other words, knowing is about ‘becoming’ or ‘being’. The state of ‘being’ requires a continuous process of searching for the truth i.e. reality. However, given the diversity in human knowledge based simply on rationality and reasoning, it is a stupendous task to integrate the acquired knowledge of a discipline like that of economics with revealed knowledge i.e. on Islamic world view (IWV). This study attempts to identify the existing courses in Economics based on so-called conventional wisdom and suggest the process of integrating the knowledge of IWV usng the sources derived from the Quran, Sunnah, Qiyas and Ijtihad. As for the operationalization, this study involves different potential stake-holders such as, institutions, teachers, students, sharia scholars, parents, and lastly the markets as components of demand and supply side. Keywords: Islamization, revealed and acquired knowledge, conventional economics, stake-holders.Download Full Article |
