jrge
Abstract - Effects of Oil Prices and Exchange Rates Movements on JSE Stock Return Volatility
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Abstract: South Africa has targeted the oil and gas sector for investment through the industrial action plan as a special economic zone. This paper focussed on the effects of oil prices and exchange rate movements in the oil and gas stock returns using the GARCH - GED model to incorporate volatility. Additionally, the paper estimates causality effects through the pairwise Granger causality techniques using secondary monthly data for the period 2007 - 2015. The findings where that change in oil prices had a positive and significant mean effect on oil and gas sector stock returns. Furthermore, changes in exchange rates had a negative and significant mean effect on the sector returns. Volatility clustering was found to be present in the sector stock returns, but volatilities associated with each of the significant variables do not last for long before it fades away. It is highly recommended that market players or investors and portfolio managers should have a keen interest on the exchange rate. While policy makers and regulators should strive to have stable exchange rate movements to offset unexpected or sudden decline of the exchange rate, depreciation. This has the detriment of additional costs through oil prices purchase by companies in the sector. Keywords: Oil Prices, Exchange rate, Stock Returns, volatility, GARCH Model. |
Abstract - Exploring Liquidity Risk and Interest-Rate Risk: Implications for Profitability and Firm Value in Nigerian Banks
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Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of liquidity risk and interest rate risk on profitability and firm value, current studies are typically limited in emerging markets. This study employs a panel data estimation technique and a sample of 16 banks operating in Nigeria over the period from 2009 to 2017 making up to 144 observations. The findings of the study reveal that liquidity risk (loan to deposit ratio and liquid asset ratio) have a significant negative effect on firm value, the net interest margin and GDP have a negative significant impact on firm value for Nigerian banks. The loan to deposit ratio have a negative significant effect on firm value while the liquid asset ratio have a positive effect on firm value. The net interest margin have a negative significant effect on firm value while the asset interest margin have a positive significant impact on firm value. The GDP and inflation both have a positive significant relationship with firm value. The liquidity risk (loan to deposit ratio and liquid asset ratio) have a significant negative impact on return on equity of Nigerian banks. The GDP growth rate have a positive significant effect on the value of firm. Hence, this empirical study emphasizes and contributes to the dynamic role of liquidity risk and interest-rate risk and it’s implication on profitability and firm value of banks in Nigeria and suggest that further study can explore a comparative study between Nigeria and financial firms in developed economy. Keywords: Firm value, profitability, liquidity risk, interest-rate risk, Nigeria. |
Abstract - Exports, Terms of Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence from Countries with Different Level of Openness
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Abstract: This paper explores the effects of the ratio exports/GDP and the terms of trade on growth among countries with different level of development and openness. These effects vary among subgroups of countries with different openness and per development level. Nonetheless, in general the evidence seems to support the hypothesis stated in this research. In less developed or better endowed for export countries one or both of the explanatory variables mentioned above encourage for economic growth. Specifically, in advanced economies only the ratio exports/GDP is growth promoting when these are open, and have high per capita but small global GDP and/or relative advantages to be growth export-led. In turn, exports or and the terms of trade trends to promote growth in lower middle income countries. Unfortunately, the surprising results came from the poorest countries. They do not are benefited from a more favourable foreign environment. On the contrary, exports are not significant while an improvement in the terms of trade diminishes their growth. Keywords: Economic growth, degree of openness, developed level. |
Abstract - The Effects of Liquidity Risk and Interest-Rate Risk on Profitability and Firm Value among Banks in ASEAN-5 Countries
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Abstract: This study explores the issues relating to liquidity risk and interest-rate risk, recognizing that existing studies are mostly vague in emerging and developing markets. Panel data estimation technique is employed in the study based on data extracted from 63 commercial banks in ASEAN-5 countries over the period 2009 to 2017 making up to 567 observations. The empirical results reveal that loan to deposit ratio have a positive significant effect on firm value while liquid asset ratio, interest rate risk (net interest margin and asset interest yield) have a negative significant effect on firm value for ASEAN. The loan to deposit ratio have a positive significant impact on return on asset, interest rate risk and banks size have a significant negative effect on return on asset for ASEAN banks while GDP and inflation have a positive significant effect on return on asset. Also, the liquidity risk have a negative significant effect on return on equity while the interest rate risk have a positive significant effect, bank size have a significant negative effect on return on equity while inflation rate have a positive significant impact on return on equity. Hence, this empirical study provides implications that emphasizes on the need for banks to adhere to prudential and regulatory guidelines and ensure corporate management with respect to liquidity exposure that is capable of critically affecting banks profitability and firm value. The dynamics of interest rate volatility in banks operating environment necessitates that financial institutions use sound risk management practices in order to obtain higher valuations, achieve better financial performance and experience diminished costs of financial distress that’s useful for policy implementations in ASEAN economies and suggest that further study can explore the interaction between abnormal loan growth and non-performing loans with a robust econometrics model. Keywords: Liquidity risk, interest-rate risk, profitability, firm value, ASEAN. |
