jrge
Abstract - Causality between Monetary Expansion and the Price Level in India since 1950s – A Re-Examination
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Abstract: This paper has tested short run causality between broad money supply and whole-sale price index (WPI) in India during 1951-2013 adopting a Toda-Yamamoto (1995) modified Granger causality approach under a VAR environment. Exponentially detrended annual time series data on broad money supply and the whole-sale price index are used for this purpose. Alternative tests for structural breaks reveal significant but dissimilar breaks in the variables. The empirical results are suggestive of a uni-directional causality from broad money supply to WPI. The study further finds that broad money supply and WPI in India have a long-run co-integrating relationship and short run causal relations could hence be expected. Keywords: Broad money supply, WPI, Modified Granger Causality, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) and VAR.Download Full Article |
Abstract - EDITORIAL: Economic Growth and Convergence: Analyses for the Mexican States
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Abstract - Testing Stochastic Convergence among Mexican States: A Polynomial Regression Analysis
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Abstract: Another look on the economic convergence among Mexican states is offered examining whether they are approaching along 1940-2010. Methodology is based on polynomial regressions, a method that determines whether predictions can be significantly improved by increasing the complexity of the fitted straight-line model. Estimates from a set of polynomial terms are a theoretical approximation to income differentials, so it constitutes an adequate frame to analyze if different initial conditions tend to diminish in the long-run. We calibrate for each economy the polynomial equation of best adjustment supported in information criteria and a strategy of backward iterative elimination. Empirical results are according with the stochastic convergence, but in a relationship where it changed after trade opening, poorer states are diverging and richer states are converging. A focalized regional policy is necessary with the aim to correct the biases produced in a context where some regions are lagging while others more are advancing. Keywords: Convergence, polynomial regression, economic growth, Mexican states.Download Full Article |
Abstract - Is the Economic Convergence of the Mexican States Possible? Estimates for the 1940-2013 Period
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Abstract: In this paper we study β-convergence: absolute and conditional, also σ convergence, using cross-state regression models, based in a long term period of time for the Federated States of Mexico. When absolute convergence is estimated (Solow Model, 1956) we found the negative sign expected but the result is not statistically reliable; while, estimates for decades only show absolute convergence for the period of 1960-1970, known with the term of “Mexican Miracle”, a third regression including population growth rate and physical capital investment per capita, variables as considered by Solow models, confirm that there is not absolute convergence like the first result obtained. The estimate including human capital index (HCI) and human development index (HDI 2), shows a number of outliers, suggesting the introduction of proxy variables which capture the political effects and explore conditional convergence. When panel heteroskedastic is considerate, convergence is observed, but β 2% any case was estimated. Keywords: Convergence, human capital, regional economics.Download Full Article |
