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Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

Ludwig M. Lachmann Against the Cambridge School
Pages 251-267
Carmelo Ferlito

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2015.04.25

Published: 14 December 2015

Open Access 


Abstract: While in the early 1930s Keynes and Hayek were the major figures in a heated academic debate about money and capital, in which Keynes also and especially involved the Italian Piero Sraffa, it might seem at first sight that the Austrian economist set aside an organic demolition of the ideas expressed in 1936 by his rival in the General Theory. Hayek himself, in the future, would regret not having devoted an organic work to criticising the new Keynesian theories. However, as demonstrated in Sanz Bas (2011), although it is not possible to find a debate such as the one on the Treatise on Money, Hayek’s subsequent works do include timely and reasoned criticisms as regards the main conclusions of the new Cambridge macroeconomics.

But the ‘Austrian knight’ of a new Vienna-Cambridge debate, in the subsequent decades, was the German economist Ludwig M. Lachmann (1906-1990), a student of Hayek at LSE during the 1930s and later a professor in Johannesburg and New York. Lachmann was one of the protagonists of the Austrian revival after 1974 and the founding leader of the ‘hermeneutic stream’, opposed by the Rothbardian stream.

Lachmann, defending Keynes’s subjectivism and expectation theory, revived the Vienna-Cambridge controversy, criticising not Keynes but his followers, in particular the ‘new’ Cambridge School, developed by Joan Robinson and Piero Sraffa. Lachmann’s life sight was to build a new economics paradigm, centred on the idea of market process, expectations and kaleidic society (Shackle); in order to do so he developed a deep attack toward the new Cambridge macroeconomics mainstream, arising from World War II ashes during the 1950s and 1960s. His polemic toward the ‘modern’ macroeconomics can be read in all his books and papers, but it is particularly evident in Lachmann (1973, [1986a] 1994).

His preferred targets were Sraffa and Joan Robinson, ‘guilty’, according to Lachmann, to overcome Keynes’s subjectivism and to develop a new Neo-Ricardian approach. The resulting macroeconomics is accused to be excessively formalist, ignoring the microfoundations that are at the very root of human action and choice.

But Lachmann’s attack was not only an epistemological one. He intensively tried to demolish all the pillars of the Cambridge macroeconomics: capital as aggregate, long run equilibrium, the absence of innovation and technological change and the conception of rate of profit. His starting point was an economics based on human expectations as the only possible source of human actions. A source, however, never at rest, and continuously influenced by technological change and changing information.

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Keywords: Lachmann, Hayek, Keynes, Sraffa, Business Cycle, Austrian Economics, Expectations, Cambridge, Ricardo.
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Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

Wagner or Keynes for Ghana? Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Dynamics. A ‘VAR’ Approach
Pages 177-183
Kofi Kamasa and Grace Ofori-Abebrese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2015.04.18

Published: 27 November 2015

Open Access 


Abstract: This paper analysed empirically the causal relationship between government expenditure growth and GDP growth in Ghana from 1980 – 2010. The study employed vector autoregressive (VAR)/Granger causality analysis developed by Sims (1980) and Granger (1969). The cointegration results provided evidence of a unique cointegrating vector. Granger causality test conducted revealed that causality exist only from GDP growth to government expenditure growth and not the vice versa. This implication supports Wagner’s law of expanding state activities for Ghana. This result means that in estimating government expenditure, GDP growth must be taken into account so as to avoid the problem of misspecification and biasness of estimates generated. The findings also suggest that government must focus on policies that would create the enabling environment for growth to thrive rather than increasing its expenditure with the aim of increasing GDP growth.

Keywords: Granger causality, Cointegration, Unit root, Government Expenditure, GDP growth.
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Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

International Investor Sentiment and Emerging Equity Markets in Central and Eastern Europe
Pages 165-176
Magdalena Sokalska

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2015.04.17

Published: 18 November 2015

Open Access 


Abstract: This paper uses the vector Markov switching method of Hamilton (1990) to measure market sentiment in a group of countries. We investigate the apparent co-movement of equity returns in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We argue that the main underlying forces moving stock returns in small open emerging markets are of an exogenous nature. The main factor driving prices in the region is modeled as an unobservable variable labeled “international investor sentiment”. This latent variable is represented as a two-state Markov chain and makes stock returns switch from a growth regime to a depression regime, or in the opposite direction. In such a framework, the stock return process comes from a mixture of two multivariate normal distributions. The estimated latent variable shows significant correlation with a number of data series on global capital flows, mutual fund flows, regional emerging and developed markets’ equity returns as well as with other popular market sentiment or economic uncertainty indicators. It does not show a strong association with a comprehensive set of contemporaneous local economic factors with the exception of the quarterly change in industrial production.

Keywords: Markov Switching Models, Emerging Markets, Central and Eastern Europe, Capital Inflows.
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Journal of Reviews on Global Economics

Examining the Asymmetric Behavior across the Phases of Capacity Utilization Rates in Turkey
Pages 159-164
Ismail Onur Baycan

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6000/1929-7092.2015.04.16

Published: 22 October 2015

Open Access 


Abstract: This is the first study that explicitly models and characterizes the asymmetric state dependent dynamics of the Turkish capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry. The analysis employs hidden Markov models to the mean and variance that are robust to potential structural breaks. The model parameters are estimated using EM algorithm together with the nonlinear filter to provide the maximum likelihood estimates without imposing any a priori restrictions on model parameters and infer the states through statistical estimation. The results reveal nonlinearity, determine the number of regimes and identify the nonlinear heteroscedasticity across different phases. The paper provides the smoothed probabilities of low, moderate and high capacity utilization regimes along with the fitted values for the Turkish capacity utilization rates. A three state specification with regime-dependent mean and variance dynamics is identified. The study also employs the estimated transition probabilities and determines the durations and persistence of staying in each particular regime for the capacity utilization rate fluctuations of the manufacturing industry in Turkey..

Keywords: Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing Industry, Markov Switching Models.
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