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Parametric Modeling of Survival Data Based on Human Immune Virus (HIV) Infected Adult Patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART): A Case of Zewditu Referral Hospital, Addis Ababa (AA), Ethiopia
Pages 240-247
Haftu Legesse and M.K. Sharma
Published: 09 December 2016

Abstract: In the present article our aim is to model the HIV infected adult patients’ dataset. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Zewditu Referral Hospital located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Records of patients enrolled between September 2010 and August 2014 were reviewed continuously using patients’Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) unique identification numbers as reference. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Log-Rank test were used to compare the survival experience of different category of patients. Then we attempted to model the above data with the help of four parametric models namely; Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and Log-logistic. All fitted models were compared separately by using AIC and log likelihood. The log-logistic model gave a better description of the time-to-death of HIV infected adult patients than the other models. Based on log-logistic model, age, weight, and functional status, TB screen, World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage and educational level were found to be the most prognostic factors of time-to-death. Furthermore a high risk of death of patients was found to be associated with lower initial weight, WHO clinical stage IV, lower CD4 count, being ambulatory, bedridden, and TB screened and illiterate.

Keywords: Human immunodeficiency Virus, Acquired immune deficiency syndrome, Parametric Models, HAART, ARTCD.
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